Blog
Thoughts on predictive intelligence, agent-based simulation, and emergent behavior.
US Attacks Iran
We simulated the American population through 5 weeks of war with Iran. The gas prices alone redraw the midterms.
February 24Case Study: Simulating the Bud Light Boycott
We simulated 1,000 beer consumers reacting to the 2023 Bud Light boycott. The simulation predicted 9.6% permanent defection vs 15% ground truth, captured the say-do gap, and revealed why most boycotts are louder than they are real.
February 14Introducing Extropy: Predicting Real-World Behavior Before It Happens
Extropy is a population simulation engine for forecasting behavioral outcomes. We validated it against 12 real-world studies and it matched ground truth in 9/12 cases. Here is the full methodology, results, and what we got wrong.
February 13Compiling Populations Instead of Prompting Them
Most agent frameworks generate populations by prompting an LLM. Extropy compiles them: a staged pipeline that researches distributions, resolves dependencies, and produces a deterministic, auditable specification.
February 12