New: We Simulated What Happens to Americans When the US Strikes IranRead

Synthetic Populations. Real Predictions.

Watch opinions form, spread, and shift over time. A living simulation of how populations actually arrive at decisions.

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US STRIKES IRAN
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Population: 0 agentsModel: gpt-5-mini
SCENARIO TIMELINE
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
WEEK 1 The Strikes
· US launches airstrikes on 47 targets across Iran. B-2s, carrier F/A-18s, Tomahawks
· Iran retaliates: 30+ ballistic missiles at Al Udeid. 3 US killed, 47 wounded
· Gas jumps $3.40 to $4.80/gal overnight. Dow drops 1,400 points. Protests in major cities
WEEK 3 Hormuz Blockade
· Iran blockades Strait of Hormuz. Two tankers struck, 14 crew killed
· Oil hits $140/barrel. US gas $6.20/gal nationally, California above $8.00
· Houthis close Red Sea shipping. Walmart, Amazon warn of supply chain disruptions
WEEK 5 Economic Cascade
· Unemployment claims up 40%. Trucking imposes 25% fuel surcharges. Food prices up 15%
· Iran strikes Saudi oil at Abqaiq. 4M barrels/day offline. Oil touches $180/barrel
· Pentagon deploys 15,000 additional troops. 30,000 reservists called up
OUTCOMES
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Crisis Stance
Critical
0.0%
Disengaged
0%
Cautious
0.0%
Oppose
0.0%
Supportive
0%
Ceasefire Assessment
Pyrrhic
0.0%
Too Early
0.0%
Mixed
0.0%
Victory
0.0%
Failure
0%
Economic Adaptation
Significant
0.0%
No Change
0.0%
Minor Cuts
0.0%
Crisis Mode
0.0%
Relocating
0.0%
Energy Cost Impact
Serious
0.0%
Manageable
0.0%
Severe
0.0%
Negligible
0.0%
Midterm Voting Intent
Protest Vote
0.0%
Democrat
0.0%
GOP (reserv.)
0.0%
GOP (endorse)
0.0%
Abstain
0.0%
Trust in Government
Deep Distrust
0.0%
Skeptical
0.0%
Moderate
0.0%
Confident
0.0%
Total Loss
0.0%
Network Activity
1,600 conversations · 8,013 state changes · 12,434 social posts across 3 timesteps
01 / Applications

USE CASES

Describe a population and a scenario. Get distributional predictions segmented by any attribute.

Brand Strategy01

Netflix Password Crackdown

Simulate subscriber response to a password-sharing crackdown across 50M households. Model who upgrades, who churns, who pirates, and who discovers they never watched enough to care — segmented by household size, viewing hours, and price sensitivity.

Product Launch02

Pricing Shock Test

Run a synthetic population through a 40% price increase on a subscription product. Surface the segments that absorb it, the ones that downgrade, and the vocal minority that drives cancellation narratives on social — before you ship.

Crisis Response03

US Strikes Iran

Predict population-level response to military escalation in the Middle East. Agents form stances, have household conversations about budgets and safety, and self-organize into support, opposition, and disengagement as the crisis unfolds.

Scenario Planning04

AGI Achieved

Model how a population adapts after a superintelligence demonstration. Track employment shifts, changes in sense of purpose, and daily routine disruption over months, segmented by career vulnerability, financial margin, and worldview.

Consumer Behavior05

Boycott Dynamics

Quantify the say-do gap. Identify which segments actually follow through on stated boycott intent versus perform outrage online, segmented by brand loyalty, social influence, and real switching costs.

Go-To-Market06

Category Entry

Model how a new entrant disrupts an established category. Simulate trial, adoption, and switching behavior across customer segments — and predict which incumbent loyalists are actually persuadable versus locked in by habit, ecosystem, or contract.

02 / Architecture

HOW IT WORKS

You describe a population and a scenario. Extropy builds statistically grounded synthetic agents, connects them in a social network, and runs a multi-timestep simulation where each agent reasons, shares, and re-evaluates as opinions cascade through the network.

01

Population Synthesis

Describe who you want to simulate. An LLM discovers the attributes that actually matter for this population, researches real-world distributions with citations, and samples a statistically grounded set of synthetic agents.

02

Social Network

Agents are connected through realistic social graphs. Who knows whom, who influences whom. The topology is derived from the population itself, not a generic template.

03

Simulation

Each agent reasons individually through an LLM based on their persona, memory, and what they've heard from peers. This isn't a one-shot prediction. Agents re-reason as new information spreads, opinions shift, and convictions strengthen or erode across timesteps.

04

Results

Distributional predictions segmented by any attribute. Broken down by income, geography, behavior, or whatever dimension matters. Track how sentiment and position distributions evolve across the full simulation timeline, not just the final state.

05

Introspection

Every agent leaves a reasoning trace. Drill into any individual to see exactly what they heard, how they weighed it, and why they landed where they did. Understand the "why" behind every data point, not just the aggregate.

Open Source

MIT licensed

CLI-First

Built for agent harnesses

Provider Agnostic

OpenAI, Anthropic, or Azure

Reproducible

Same seed, same population